Happy, happy April Fool’s Day!
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I’ve been doing some digging into the top-down approach of blockchain research – in other words, what various governments are doing to support development. It’s disconcerting, because – just judging from the headlines (I know, I know, facts and figures to follow) – the US and Europe are not dedicating nearly as many resources as others (cough, China and Russia).
This article from Politico looks at Europe’s attitude towards another transformational technology: artificial intelligence. And the conclusion is alarming.
“With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.”
That much we knew. It’s when we compare China’s approach:
“In a three-year action plan to develop AI, published by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in December 2017, Beijing laid out a goal of being able to mass-produce neural-network processing chips by 2020. The country’s cloud computing companies are racing to deploy increasingly sophisticated services featuring machine learning and AI.”
… to Europe’s:
“The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI… In a 14-page document, only two pages are devoted to ways of boosting Europe’s AI capacity.”
… that things start to get… alarming.
“In a passage perhaps aimed at responding to the Chinese gambit for AI supremacy, the Commission intends to argue — or so it is written in the current draft — that the EU “can position itself as a leader in the international reflection on AI.” Let others lead on AI. The EU will be able to reflect on it better than anyone else.”
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“Data collated by Thomson Reuters from the World Intellectual Property Organisation (Wipo) database showed that in 2017, more than half of the 406 blockchain related patent applications were from China… China filed 225 of the blockchain patents last year and 59 in 2016, followed by the US (91 in 2017 and 21 in 2016) and Australia (13 last year and 19 in 2016). “
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It’s starting to feel like Spring…
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This piece in Reuters – “Wall Street rethinks blockchain projects as euphoria meets reality” – is not only good journalism (getting stories that are both interesting and ignored), but also a refreshing reminder that we should be reporting about the cancellations and disappointments – they are, after all, more newsworthy these days than yet another pilot doing the same things as before but better. But for some strange reason, the protagonists are much more eager to talk about their importance, creativity and success than they are about their failures.
Media, on the whole, tends to focus on what innovators want us to know. We take the easy option of relying on press releases and conference leads, and forget to follow-up on projects that didn’t happen and deadlines that weren’t met – it’s understandable, even, since few outlets have the resources to keep up with everything. It’s a pity, though, and I’m sure we could do better.
And I am beginning to believe (later than many) that, yes, blockchain is in the typical hype-cycle slump. Good. Finally. Now is when it gets interesting.
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“Analysts say the financial crisis highlighted the risk of concentration. But 10 years later the trend of larger firms is still intact.”
More than intact, according to this graph:
“The financial sector is again becoming a bigger piece of the economy. That could translate to future risks for borrowers and consumers in another crisis.”
And it’s not that GDP has fallen… (It would be interesting to see a breakdown of finance vs insurance, and how much of that is shadow banking.)
“Regulations are tougher, but the regulators enforcing them often come from the industries they oversee.” Omg…
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The display of graphical information in finance is getting better and better…
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For refreshing clarity and a cathartic amount of swearing, this is a damn good read: “I Survived the Eternal Boy Playground, But Will Puerto Rico?”