The SEC and the Bitcoin ETF – what now?

Well, that was exciting…

source: CoinDesk
source: CoinDesk

The SEC decided to not approve the proposed Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, citing the lack of regulation on bitcoin exchanges, and the possibility of using protocol forks to manipulate the price.

While disappointing, none of that is surprising.

What is surprising is that the price didn’t plummet further. That it found strong resistance at $1,000 and then started trending back up is testament to the underlying strength of sentiment.

CoinDesk provided an excellent post-game wrap-up, with comments from Tyler Winklevoss (striking an upbeat tone, way to go Tyler) and others, reflecting on the motives and consequences.

Since the rejection was based on the fundamentals of the bitcoin market, rather than on specifics to the proposed vehicle, it looks unlikely that an SEC-regulated ETF will be forthcoming any time soon. It is possible that other jurisdictions will take a more relaxed approach – but following SEC guidance, it’s unlikely.

So where now for the Winklevoss brothers? One option is to change the scope and objectives of the fund, and limit the availability to a certain type of participant, much like the Bitcoin Investment Trust which is only available to “professional” investors.

Or, the twins could choose to continue to “work with the SEC” (as Tyler said in his statement) to get the fund approved in its current form.

This will require unpacking what the SEC is likely to mean the next time around by “unregulated”.

Bitcoin itself cannot be regulated. It was born as an unregulated currency. To regulate it is to control it.

The exchanges, however, can be regulated. In fact, Gemini is. Gemini is the Winklevoss exchange, from which the ETF price would have been determined, and is one of only three companies to have been awarded a New York BitLicense, which authorizes it to carry out bitcoin exchange activities in the state.

And yesterday, an official from the Central Bank of China was reported as saying that the PBoC is looking (again, but apparently more seriously this time) at regulating the Chinese exchanges.

So, hopefully the Winklevoss brothers will try again (although I shudder to think what all this must be costing them in lawyers). It’s unlikely that deliberations will take quite so long next time around, but even so, a couple of years is a long time in bitcoin – it’s only been around for eight.

A couple of years is also a long time in politics, and the current US administration does seem eager to dismantle financial regulations swiftly. It also appears to be bitcoin-friendly, and can no doubt count on serious lobbying by people both within government and without to harness the potential without stifling it.

Let Round 2 begin.

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